The dual impact of tariffs and exchange rate fluctuations: the influence on China's soybean import prices amid the Sino-US trade war
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The dual impact of tariffs and exchange rate fluctuations: the influence on China's soybean import prices amid the Sino-US trade war

Changchen Li 1*
1 School of Business, City University of Macau, Macao, China, 999078
*Corresponding author: B23090126041@cityu.edu.mo
Published on 16 September 2025
Journal Cover
JAEPS Vol.18 Issue 9
ISSN (Print): 2977-571X
ISSN (Online): 2977-5701
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Abstract

This study examines the impact of the Sino-US tariff war and exchange rate fluctuations on China’s soybean import prices during 2018-2019, addressing a critical research gap in understanding how these two factors jointly affect agricultural commodity markets. Using a static price decomposition method with high-frequency data from the US Department of Agriculture, IMF, and China Customs, the research isolates and quantifies the individual and interactive effects of tariffs and exchange rates on import costs. The results demonstrate that tariffs were the primary driver of cost increases in June-July 2018, with a 25% tariff hike raising import costs by 1,379 yuan/ton (100% contribution rate). Subsequently, from July to December 2018, exchange rate fluctuations became the dominant factor, with RMB depreciation contributing to a 527 yuan/ton increase (98.5% contribution rate). When both factors acted together from June to December 2018, they caused a total cost increase of 1,906 yuan/ton, with tariffs accounting for 72.4% and exchange rates for 27.6% of the increase. This study enriches theoretical understanding of agricultural price mechanisms and provides practical insights for policymakers and enterprises in managing trade-related price risks.

Keywords:

Sino-US trade war, soybean supply chain, tariffs, exchange rate, static price decomposition method

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Li,C. (2025). The dual impact of tariffs and exchange rate fluctuations: the influence on China's soybean import prices amid the Sino-US trade war. Journal of Applied Economics and Policy Studies,18(9),8-11.

References

[1]. Ministry of Finance of the People's Republic of China. (2018). _Announcement of the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council on imposing additional tariffs on products originating in the United States_ (No. 5) [Announcement]. Original URL deactivated; archived version available at: http: //www.gov.cn/gongbao/content/2018/content_5326076.htm

[2]. International Monetary Fund. (2019). _RMB exchange rate statistics (2018)_ [Data set]. Retrieved from https: //www.imf.org/en/Data

[3]. U.S. Department of Agriculture. (2018). _World agricultural supply and demand estimates: June 2018_ [Report No. WASDE-568]. Retrieved from: https: //www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest

[4]. Li, J., & Huang, Q. (2021). The impact of Sino-US trade friction on soybean import prices: Evidence from Chinese customs data (2018–2019)._China Agricultural Economic Review, 13(4), 821–839. https: //doi.org/10.1108/CAER-10-2020-0255

[5]. National Bureau of Statistics of China. (2019)._China agricultural product price yearbook 2019_ [Data report]. Beijing: China Statistics Press. https: //doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1006-2025.2019.00.05

[6]. Sun, C., et al. (2021). Sino-US trade friction and global soybean trade restructuring.Food Policy, 105, 102188. https: //doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2021.102188

[7]. Wind Database. (2018). Correlation analysis between RMB exchange rate and commodity prices (2018) [Report]. Wind Information Technology Co., Ltd.

[8]. Zhang, L. (2024). Supply chain stability in Sino-US trade. Journal of Zhejiang University (Humanities and Social Sciences), 54(2), 78–89. https: //doi.org/10.3785/j.issn.1008-942X.2024.02.007

[9]. Liang, X. (2025), Tariff Policy and Soybean Supply [J].Grain and Oil Market News, (4), 12-15.

[10]. China Research Intelligence Co., Ltd.(2025) Global Soybean Market Volatility Under the Tariff War [R]. Beijing: China Business Report Hall.

References

[1]. Ministry of Finance of the People's Republic of China. (2018). _Announcement of the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council on imposing additional tariffs on products originating in the United States_ (No. 5) [Announcement]. Original URL deactivated; archived version available at: http: //www.gov.cn/gongbao/content/2018/content_5326076.htm

[2]. International Monetary Fund. (2019). _RMB exchange rate statistics (2018)_ [Data set]. Retrieved from https: //www.imf.org/en/Data

[3]. U.S. Department of Agriculture. (2018). _World agricultural supply and demand estimates: June 2018_ [Report No. WASDE-568]. Retrieved from: https: //www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest

[4]. Li, J., & Huang, Q. (2021). The impact of Sino-US trade friction on soybean import prices: Evidence from Chinese customs data (2018–2019)._China Agricultural Economic Review, 13(4), 821–839. https: //doi.org/10.1108/CAER-10-2020-0255

[5]. National Bureau of Statistics of China. (2019)._China agricultural product price yearbook 2019_ [Data report]. Beijing: China Statistics Press. https: //doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1006-2025.2019.00.05

[6]. Sun, C., et al. (2021). Sino-US trade friction and global soybean trade restructuring.Food Policy, 105, 102188. https: //doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2021.102188

[7]. Wind Database. (2018). Correlation analysis between RMB exchange rate and commodity prices (2018) [Report]. Wind Information Technology Co., Ltd.

[8]. Zhang, L. (2024). Supply chain stability in Sino-US trade. Journal of Zhejiang University (Humanities and Social Sciences), 54(2), 78–89. https: //doi.org/10.3785/j.issn.1008-942X.2024.02.007

[9]. Liang, X. (2025), Tariff Policy and Soybean Supply [J].Grain and Oil Market News, (4), 12-15.

[10]. China Research Intelligence Co., Ltd.(2025) Global Soybean Market Volatility Under the Tariff War [R]. Beijing: China Business Report Hall.

Cite this article

Li,C. (2025). The dual impact of tariffs and exchange rate fluctuations: the influence on China's soybean import prices amid the Sino-US trade war. Journal of Applied Economics and Policy Studies,18(9),8-11.

Data availability

The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study will be available from the authors upon reasonable request.

About volume

Journal: Journal of Applied Economics and Policy Studies

Volume number: Vol.18
Issue number: Issue 9
ISSN: 2977-5701(Print) / 2977-571X(Online)

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