Modeling the impact of education investment on population migration: a case study of Yibin City in Sichuan Province
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Modeling the impact of education investment on population migration: a case study of Yibin City in Sichuan Province

Haofeng Wang 1*
1 Beijing Haidian Foreign Language Experimental School, Beijing, China
*Corresponding author: whf20090212@outlook.com
Published on 5 September 2025
Journal Cover
JAEPS Vol.18 Issue 8
ISSN (Print): 2977-571X
ISSN (Online): 2977-5701
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Abstract

The research question guiding this paper is: How does education investment, as a knowledge-based investment, affect intra-provincial population migration within a regional modeling framework that examines the city of Yibin in Sichuan Province and its surrounding cities of Chengdu, Mianyang, and Aba, within China? We construct a system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) to simulate migration flows under two policy scenarios: one featuring significant educational investment in Yibin, and the other assuming minimal intervention. The framework includes measurable socioeconomic variables and city-level characteristics to reflect the impacts of the changes in education infrastructure on migration patterns. The computational modelling based on MATLAB indicates that a specific and recurrent investment in education would have the prospective effect of slowly enhancing the demographic retention capacity of Yibin in terms of appealing to young families. The findings emphasize the need for education policy to be combined with overall urban development strategies. As a conclusion, we set some policy recommendations depending on the regions with regard to Yibin's structural limits and demographic characteristics.

Keywords:

Education Investment, Population Migration, MATLAB Simulation, Yibin, Demographic Policy

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Wang,H. (2025). Modeling the impact of education investment on population migration: a case study of Yibin City in Sichuan Province. Journal of Applied Economics and Policy Studies,18(8),77-88.

References

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[2]. Tang, Z. (Ed.). (2017). China's urbanization and socioeconomic Impact. Singapore: Springer.

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[13]. Wang, H., & Miao, L. (2019). China's domestic and international migration development. Singapore: Springer.

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[16]. Ministry of Education of the People’s Republic of China (2023).Annual Report on China’s Education Development.

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[19]. China City Statistical Database – Yibin, Chengdu, Mianyang, Aba population and migration data.Platform: https: //www.citypopulation.de/en/china/sichuan/

[20]. Tencent Regional Heat Map for Talent Flow (2023).Source: 腾讯位置大数据平台, https: //heat.qq.com

[21]. Baidu Migration Index – Population mobility among Sichuan cities during Spring Festival (2020–2024).Source: http: //qianxi.baidu.com

[22]. International Development and Urbanization References

[23]. United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA) (2019).World Urbanization Prospects: The 2018 Revision.

[24]. OECD Urban Policy Reviews (2020). Promoting Inclusive Growth in Cities: International Strategies for Mid-sized Urban Areas.

[25]. World Bank Group (2015). Urban China: Toward Efficient, Inclusive, and Sustainable Urbanization.https: //www.worldbank.org/en/country/china/publication/urban-china

References

[1]. National Bureau of Statistics of China (2021–2024).China Statistical Yearbook. http: //www.stats.gov.cn

[2]. Tang, Z. (Ed.). (2017). China's urbanization and socioeconomic Impact. Singapore: Springer.

[3]. Ma, L. J. C. (2002). Urban Transformation in China, 1949 – 2000: A Review and Research Agenda.

[4]. Ravenstein, E. G. (1885). The Laws of Migration.Journal of the Statistical Society of London, 48(2), 167–235.

[5]. Ravenstein, E. G. (1889). The laws of migration.Journal of the royal statistical society, 52(2), 241-305.

[6]. Sjaastad, L. A. (1962). The Costs and Returns of Human Migration.Journal of Political Economy, 70(5, Part 2), 80–93.

[7]. Lee, E. S. (1966). A theory of migration.Demography, 3(1), 47-57.

[8]. Todaro, M. P. (1969). A Model of Labor Migration and Urban Unemployment in Less Developed Countries.The American Economic Review, 59(1), 138–148.

[9]. Zelinsky, W. (1971). The hypothesis of the mobility transition.Geographical review, 219-249.

[10]. Krugman, P. (1991). Increasing Returns and Economic Geography.Journal of Political Economy, 99(3), 483–499.

[11]. Beine, M., Docquier, F., & Rapoport, H. (2008). Brain Drain and Human Capital Formation in Developing Countries: Winners and Losers.The Economic Journal, 118(528), 631–652.

[12]. Lucas, R. E. B. (1997). Internal Migration in Developing Countries.Handbook of Population and Family Economics, 1B, 721–798.

[13]. Wang, H., & Miao, L. (2019). China's domestic and international migration development. Singapore: Springer.

[14]. Yibin Municipal People’s Government (2022).Yibin City 14th Five-Year Development Plan for Human Resources and Education Development.

[15]. Sichuan Provincial Development and Reform Commission (2021).Sichuan Province Urbanization Quality Improvement Plan(2021–2035).

[16]. Ministry of Education of the People’s Republic of China (2023).Annual Report on China’s Education Development.

[17]. Sichuan Statistical Yearbook (2020–2023).Sichuan Provincial Bureau of Statistics. http: //tjj.sc.gov.cn

[18]. Yibin Statistical Bulletin on National Economic and Social Development (2021–2023).Source: http: //www.yibin.gov.cn

[19]. China City Statistical Database – Yibin, Chengdu, Mianyang, Aba population and migration data.Platform: https: //www.citypopulation.de/en/china/sichuan/

[20]. Tencent Regional Heat Map for Talent Flow (2023).Source: 腾讯位置大数据平台, https: //heat.qq.com

[21]. Baidu Migration Index – Population mobility among Sichuan cities during Spring Festival (2020–2024).Source: http: //qianxi.baidu.com

[22]. International Development and Urbanization References

[23]. United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA) (2019).World Urbanization Prospects: The 2018 Revision.

[24]. OECD Urban Policy Reviews (2020). Promoting Inclusive Growth in Cities: International Strategies for Mid-sized Urban Areas.

[25]. World Bank Group (2015). Urban China: Toward Efficient, Inclusive, and Sustainable Urbanization.https: //www.worldbank.org/en/country/china/publication/urban-china

Cite this article

Wang,H. (2025). Modeling the impact of education investment on population migration: a case study of Yibin City in Sichuan Province. Journal of Applied Economics and Policy Studies,18(8),77-88.

Data availability

The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study will be available from the authors upon reasonable request.

About volume

Journal: Journal of Applied Economics and Policy Studies

Volume number: Vol.18
Issue number: Issue 8
ISSN: 2977-5701(Print) / 2977-571X(Online)

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