The Rise and Spillover Effects of American Populism Through the Lens of Two-Level Game Theory
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The Rise and Spillover Effects of American Populism Through the Lens of Two-Level Game Theory

Hongjing Li 1*
1 Harbin Institute of Technology
*Corresponding author: 15359901276@163.com
Published on 4 December 2025
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LNEP Vol.121
ISSN (Print): 2753-7056
ISSN (Online): 2753-7048
ISBN (Print): 978-1-80590-373-4
ISBN (Online): 978-1-80590-374-1
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Abstract

Populism is receiving growing attention in the political landscape of many countries around the world. Since the 2016 U.S. presidential election, populism has evolved from a fringe ideology into a central force reshaping American domestic politics and international behavior. As Donald Trump returned to power in 2024, his diplomatic shift has significantly reshaped the global political landscape. Meanwhile, international political behavior is not driven by a single external threat but rather by the complex interplay between external structural pressures and domestic political dynamics. Therefore, the paper explores the rise and spillover effects of American populism from a two-level game perspective, tracing the root causes of Trump’s return to victory and diplomatic approach. It argues that the populist resurgence narrows the domestic win-set available to U.S. leaders, constraining foreign-policy bargaining and pushing it toward unilateralism, transactional diplomacy, and the erosion of multilateral norms. The analysis integrates domestic drivers, including economic inequality, political polarization, and cultural anxiety, with international consequences, which encompass weakened alliances, global populist diffusion, and democratic regression. Findings reveal how populism operates simultaneously as a domestic mobilization strategy and an international negotiating constraint. Ultimately, the insight contributes to a deeper understanding of how populist pressures transform the logic of two-level games, seeking to offer important implications for the dynamics of policy decision-making and the international actors’ role in the international order.

Keywords:

American Populism, Two-Level Game Theory, U.S. Foreign Policy, American Politics, International Order

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Li,H. (2025). The Rise and Spillover Effects of American Populism Through the Lens of Two-Level Game Theory. Lecture Notes in Education Psychology and Public Media,121,1-7.

References

[1]. Lin, H. (2007). Populism: Concepts, theories, and empirical evidence. Central Compilation & Translation Press.

[2]. Tushnet, M. (2019). Varieties of populism. German Law Journal, 20(3), 382-389. https: //doi.org/ 10.1017/ glj.2019. 27.

[3]. Putnam, R. D. (1988). Diplomacy and domestic politics: the logic of two-level games. International Organization, 42(3), 427-460. https: //doi.org/10.1017/S0020818300027697

[4]. Barker, D. C., & DeTamble, R. (2022). American populism: Dimensions, distinctions, and correlates. Global Public Policy and Governance, 2(1), https: //doi.org/10.1007/s43508-022-00033-2

[5]. Wang, L. H. (2024). The rise of American populism and its diplomatic impact in recent years. Renmin Forum Academic Frontiers, (19), 101-111. https: //doi.org/10.16619/j.cnki.rmltxsqy.2024.19.011.

[6]. Lyu, P. S., & Liu, J. M. (2018). The change of people’s values on the rise of American populism. Pacific Journal, 26(11), 10-13. https: //doi.org/10.14015/j.cnki.1004-8049.2018.11.002.

[7]. Wang, J. S., & Tian, D. R. (2020). A study of “Relationship Crisis” among nations: Based on the case study of Sino-US relations. International Review, (04), 1-20.

[8]. Schmidt, V. A. (2023). Populist agenda-setting: Shaping the narrative, framing the debate, captivating the 'people’, upending the mainstream, capturing power. Journal of European Public Policy, 32(5), 1073-1096. https: //doi.org/10.1080/13501763.2023.2289596

[9]. Lee, F. E. (2020). Populism and the American party system: Opportunities and constraints. Perspectives on Politics, 18(2), 370–388. doi: 10.1017/S1537592719002664

[10]. Erin, K. Jenne. (2021). Populism, nationalism, and revisionist foreign policy. International Affairs, 97(2), 323-343. https: //doi.org/10.1093/ia/iiaa230

[11]. Chennattuserry, J. C., Deshpande, M., & Hong, P. (eds) (2024). Encyclopedia of new populism and responses in the 21st century: Populism and its impact on foreign policy. Springer, Singapore. https: //doi.org/10.1007/978-981-99-7802-1_245

[12]. Wojczewski, T. (2020). Trump, populism, and American foreign policy. Foreign Policy Analysis, 16(3), 292-311. https: //doi.org/10.1093/fpa/orz021

[13]. da Conceição-Heldt, E., & Mello, P. (2017). Two-level games in foreign policy analysis: Oxford research encyclopedia of politics. Oxford University Press. http: //dx.doi.org/ 10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.496

References

[1]. Lin, H. (2007). Populism: Concepts, theories, and empirical evidence. Central Compilation & Translation Press.

[2]. Tushnet, M. (2019). Varieties of populism. German Law Journal, 20(3), 382-389. https: //doi.org/ 10.1017/ glj.2019. 27.

[3]. Putnam, R. D. (1988). Diplomacy and domestic politics: the logic of two-level games. International Organization, 42(3), 427-460. https: //doi.org/10.1017/S0020818300027697

[4]. Barker, D. C., & DeTamble, R. (2022). American populism: Dimensions, distinctions, and correlates. Global Public Policy and Governance, 2(1), https: //doi.org/10.1007/s43508-022-00033-2

[5]. Wang, L. H. (2024). The rise of American populism and its diplomatic impact in recent years. Renmin Forum Academic Frontiers, (19), 101-111. https: //doi.org/10.16619/j.cnki.rmltxsqy.2024.19.011.

[6]. Lyu, P. S., & Liu, J. M. (2018). The change of people’s values on the rise of American populism. Pacific Journal, 26(11), 10-13. https: //doi.org/10.14015/j.cnki.1004-8049.2018.11.002.

[7]. Wang, J. S., & Tian, D. R. (2020). A study of “Relationship Crisis” among nations: Based on the case study of Sino-US relations. International Review, (04), 1-20.

[8]. Schmidt, V. A. (2023). Populist agenda-setting: Shaping the narrative, framing the debate, captivating the 'people’, upending the mainstream, capturing power. Journal of European Public Policy, 32(5), 1073-1096. https: //doi.org/10.1080/13501763.2023.2289596

[9]. Lee, F. E. (2020). Populism and the American party system: Opportunities and constraints. Perspectives on Politics, 18(2), 370–388. doi: 10.1017/S1537592719002664

[10]. Erin, K. Jenne. (2021). Populism, nationalism, and revisionist foreign policy. International Affairs, 97(2), 323-343. https: //doi.org/10.1093/ia/iiaa230

[11]. Chennattuserry, J. C., Deshpande, M., & Hong, P. (eds) (2024). Encyclopedia of new populism and responses in the 21st century: Populism and its impact on foreign policy. Springer, Singapore. https: //doi.org/10.1007/978-981-99-7802-1_245

[12]. Wojczewski, T. (2020). Trump, populism, and American foreign policy. Foreign Policy Analysis, 16(3), 292-311. https: //doi.org/10.1093/fpa/orz021

[13]. da Conceição-Heldt, E., & Mello, P. (2017). Two-level games in foreign policy analysis: Oxford research encyclopedia of politics. Oxford University Press. http: //dx.doi.org/ 10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.496

Cite this article

Li,H. (2025). The Rise and Spillover Effects of American Populism Through the Lens of Two-Level Game Theory. Lecture Notes in Education Psychology and Public Media,121,1-7.

Data availability

The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study will be available from the authors upon reasonable request.

About volume

Volume title: Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on International Law and Legal Policy

ISBN: 978-1-80590-373-4(Print) / 978-1-80590-374-1(Online)
Editor: Renuka Thakore
Conference website: https://2025.icillp.org/
Conference date: 21 November 2025
Series: Lecture Notes in Education Psychology and Public Media
Volume number: Vol.121
ISSN: 2753-7048(Print) / 2753-7056(Online)

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