Sino-Russian Cooperation in the Context of the Russian Ukrainian War: An Analysis of Realistic Alliance Theory
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Sino-Russian Cooperation in the Context of the Russian Ukrainian War: An Analysis of Realistic Alliance Theory

Kaifeng Fang 1*
1 China University of Political Science and Law
*Corresponding author: FangKaifeng216@Outlook.com
Published on 5 November 2025
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LNEP Vol.115
ISSN (Print): 2753-7056
ISSN (Online): 2753-7048
ISBN (Print): 978-1-80590-513-4
ISBN (Online): 978-1-80590-514-1
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Abstract

This paper examines Sino-Russian cooperation following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine War in 2022 using realist alliance theory as an analytical framework. It argues that the partnership is a pragmatic, crisis-driven alignment rather than a “quasi-alliance.” Three drivers explain the intensified cooperation: Russia’s strategic demand amid confrontation with the West, the mitigation of China’s fear of Russian “abandonment,” and structural openings from Russia’s weakened influence in Central Asia and the Arctic. These factors have expanded trade, joint military activities, and Chinese involvement in regional infrastructure projects. However, the paper also identifies significant constraints, particularly the growing asymmetry in economic dependence—Russia increasingly relies on China, but not vice versa—and the risk of China being entrapped in Russia’s geopolitical conflicts. Additionally, the warming Russia-North Korea relationship introduces a third-party variable that complicates China’s strategic calculations. Ultimately, the paper concludes that while the war has accelerated Sino-Russian cooperation, it has also reinforced structural imbalances and strategic limitations, making a formal alliance unlikely. The future trajectory of this partnership will depend on Russia’s post-war strength and China’s ability to balance alignment benefits with strategic risks.

Keywords:

Sino-Russian cooperation, Russian Ukrainian War, realistic alliance theory

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Fang,K. (2025). Sino-Russian Cooperation in the Context of the Russian Ukrainian War: An Analysis of Realistic Alliance Theory. Lecture Notes in Education Psychology and Public Media,115,33-38.

References

[1]. Blank, S. (2022) Russia, China, and Information War against Ukraine, The Journal of East Asian Affairs, 35(2): 40-48.

[2]. Morgenthau, H.J. (1991) Politics Among Nations (6th ed.). Vanguard Books Ltd.

[3]. Waltz, K. (2003) Theory of International Politics. Shanghai People’s Publishing House.

[4]. Snyder, G. (2007) Alliance Politics. Cornell University Press.

[5]. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation. (2023-3-31) The Concept of the Foreign Policy of the Russian Federation. Retrieved from https: //mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/fundamental_documents/1860586/?lang=cn.

[6]. Wang, S.C., & Chen, Z.Y. (2024) Russia’s Adjustment of its Belt and Road Policy in the Context of the Russo-Ukrainian Conflict. International Forum, 5: 94-95.

[7]. National Development and Reform Commission of the People’s Republic of China. (2023-3-25) Sino-Russian Economic and Trade Cooperation Progresses Steadily. Retrieved from https: //www.ndrc.gov.cn/fggz/gjhz/zywj/202303/t20230325_1351911_ext.html.

[8]. Sputnik. (2024-1-12) China's General Administration of Customs: China-Russia trade volume increased by 26.3% in 2023 to a record high of US$240.11 billion. Retrieved from https: //sputniknews.cn/amp/20240112/1056298976.html.

[9]. Feng, S.L. (2024) Global Transformation, the Russia-Ukraine Crisis and Sino-Russian Relations. Russian Studies, 1: 24.

[10]. Wang, S.C. and Chen, Z.Y. (2024) Russia’s Adjustment of its Belt and Road Policy in the Context of the Russo-Ukrainian Conflict. International Forum, 5: 81-84.

[11]. Kluge, J. (2024) Russia-China Economic Relations: Moscow’s Road to Economic Dependence, SWP Research Paper, 26-27. https: //doi.org/10.18449/2024RP06.

[12]. China Merchants Bank Institution. (2024-11-1) Research on China's Automotive Globalization: Complete Vehicle Exports Face Trouble, Full-Scale Overseas Expansion is Inevitable. Retrieved from https: //mp.weixin.qq.com/s/SSUadN-Xf6BkkWUUxj8fcg?.

[13]. China Automotive News. (2025-4-28) Reversal! Are multinational automakers 'returning’ to Russia? Retrieved from https: //tidenews.com.cn/news.html?id=3111190.

[14]. Chen, J., Shao, R., & Ye, Q.L. (2024-3-24) Energy, automobiles, mobile phones...China-Russia trade doubled in five years. The Paper. Retrieved from https: //m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_26857180.

[15]. Robert, D., % Fontaine, R. (2024-12) No Limits? The China-Russia Relationship and U.S. Foreign Policy. Council Special Report No. 99.

[16]. Kaczmarski, M. (2022) The war in Ukraine and the future of Russia-China relations. NATO Defense College.

[17]. Pierson, D., & Choe, Sang-Hun. (2024-6-20) Russia and North Korea’s Defense Pact Is a New Headache for China. New York Times. Retrieved from https: //www.nytimes.com/2024/06/20/world/asia/china-russia-north-korea.html.

References

[1]. Blank, S. (2022) Russia, China, and Information War against Ukraine, The Journal of East Asian Affairs, 35(2): 40-48.

[2]. Morgenthau, H.J. (1991) Politics Among Nations (6th ed.). Vanguard Books Ltd.

[3]. Waltz, K. (2003) Theory of International Politics. Shanghai People’s Publishing House.

[4]. Snyder, G. (2007) Alliance Politics. Cornell University Press.

[5]. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation. (2023-3-31) The Concept of the Foreign Policy of the Russian Federation. Retrieved from https: //mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/fundamental_documents/1860586/?lang=cn.

[6]. Wang, S.C., & Chen, Z.Y. (2024) Russia’s Adjustment of its Belt and Road Policy in the Context of the Russo-Ukrainian Conflict. International Forum, 5: 94-95.

[7]. National Development and Reform Commission of the People’s Republic of China. (2023-3-25) Sino-Russian Economic and Trade Cooperation Progresses Steadily. Retrieved from https: //www.ndrc.gov.cn/fggz/gjhz/zywj/202303/t20230325_1351911_ext.html.

[8]. Sputnik. (2024-1-12) China's General Administration of Customs: China-Russia trade volume increased by 26.3% in 2023 to a record high of US$240.11 billion. Retrieved from https: //sputniknews.cn/amp/20240112/1056298976.html.

[9]. Feng, S.L. (2024) Global Transformation, the Russia-Ukraine Crisis and Sino-Russian Relations. Russian Studies, 1: 24.

[10]. Wang, S.C. and Chen, Z.Y. (2024) Russia’s Adjustment of its Belt and Road Policy in the Context of the Russo-Ukrainian Conflict. International Forum, 5: 81-84.

[11]. Kluge, J. (2024) Russia-China Economic Relations: Moscow’s Road to Economic Dependence, SWP Research Paper, 26-27. https: //doi.org/10.18449/2024RP06.

[12]. China Merchants Bank Institution. (2024-11-1) Research on China's Automotive Globalization: Complete Vehicle Exports Face Trouble, Full-Scale Overseas Expansion is Inevitable. Retrieved from https: //mp.weixin.qq.com/s/SSUadN-Xf6BkkWUUxj8fcg?.

[13]. China Automotive News. (2025-4-28) Reversal! Are multinational automakers 'returning’ to Russia? Retrieved from https: //tidenews.com.cn/news.html?id=3111190.

[14]. Chen, J., Shao, R., & Ye, Q.L. (2024-3-24) Energy, automobiles, mobile phones...China-Russia trade doubled in five years. The Paper. Retrieved from https: //m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_26857180.

[15]. Robert, D., % Fontaine, R. (2024-12) No Limits? The China-Russia Relationship and U.S. Foreign Policy. Council Special Report No. 99.

[16]. Kaczmarski, M. (2022) The war in Ukraine and the future of Russia-China relations. NATO Defense College.

[17]. Pierson, D., & Choe, Sang-Hun. (2024-6-20) Russia and North Korea’s Defense Pact Is a New Headache for China. New York Times. Retrieved from https: //www.nytimes.com/2024/06/20/world/asia/china-russia-north-korea.html.

Cite this article

Fang,K. (2025). Sino-Russian Cooperation in the Context of the Russian Ukrainian War: An Analysis of Realistic Alliance Theory. Lecture Notes in Education Psychology and Public Media,115,33-38.

Data availability

The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study will be available from the authors upon reasonable request.

About volume

Volume title: Proceedings of ICILLP 2025 Symposium: Property Law and Blockchain Applications in International Law and Legal Policy

ISBN: 978-1-80590-513-4(Print) / 978-1-80590-514-1(Online)
Editor: Renuka Thakore
Conference website: https://2025.icillp.org/London.html
Conference date: 21 November 2025
Series: Lecture Notes in Education Psychology and Public Media
Volume number: Vol.115
ISSN: 2753-7048(Print) / 2753-7056(Online)

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