Behavioral Dynamics of Student Alcohol Use: A Markov Chain Analysis of Academic-Period Transitions

Yuan Gao

doi:10.54254/2753-8818/2025.DL27123

Theoretical and Natural ScienceOpen access

Behavioral Dynamics of Student Alcohol Use: A Markov Chain Analysis of Academic-Period Transitions

Research Article

Open Access

Behavioral Dynamics of Student Alcohol Use: A Markov Chain Analysis of Academic-Period Transitions

Yuan Gao ^1*

¹ University of Nottingham

^*Corresponding author: smyyg3@nottingham.ac.uk

Published on 24 September 2025

TNS Vol.132

ISSN (Print): 2753-8826

ISSN (Online): 2753-8818

ISBN (Print): 978-1-80590-305-5

ISBN (Online): 978-1-80590-306-2

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Abstract

Alcohol consumption among secondary school students carries significant risks to academic performance and long-term health. While prior studies have already established static correlations between drinking behaviors and grades, the temporal dynamics of behavioral transitions remain unexplored. This study employs a Markov chain model to analyze students’ drinking patterns across different academic periods (G1–G3), using a dataset of from Kaggle and the UCI Machine Learning Repository. This data contains students’ Portuguese and math grades, as well as their weekdays and weekends’ alcohol consumption. This study also quantifies transitions between drinking states (low/moderate/high), examining gender and weekday-weekend disparities, and assessing academic impacts through ANOVA and linear regression. The key findings reveal that, Male students exhibit persistent high-risk drinking states on weekends (male=3 vs. females=2), with a 70% retention probability in Markov transitions. Each 1-level increase in weekend drinking correlates with a 0.35-point grade decline (p-value < 0.001). Weekday drinking is uniformly low (level 1) across all students, suggesting academic routines suppress consumption.

Keywords:

Alcohol consumption, Markov chains, Gender differences

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References

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References

[1]. Bagnardi, V., Rota, M., Botteri, E., & Scotti, L. (2011). Alcohol Consumption and Cancer Risk. Nutrition and Cancer, 63(7), 983-990.

[2]. Courtney, K. E., & Polich, J. (2009). Binge drinking in young adults. Psychological Bulletin, 135(1), 142-156.

[4]. Dick, D. M., Barr P., Guy, M., & Nasim, A. (2019). Unpacking genetic risk pathways for college student alcohol consumption: The mediating role of impulsivity. Addiction Biology, 24(3), 501-512.

[5]. Li, J., Wang, P., & Zhang, J. (2021). Modeling health behavior transitions with Markov chains: A systematic review. Health Psychology Review, 15(2), 222–242.

[6]. Wolaver, A. M. (2002). Effects of heavy drinking in college on study effort, grade point average, and major choice. Contemporary Economic Policy, 20(4), 415–428.

[7]. Young, A. M., Morales, M., McCabe, S. E., Boyd, C. J., & D'Arcy, H. (2005). Drinking like a guy: Frequent binge drinking among undergraduate women. Substance Use & Misuse, 40(2), 241–267.

Cite this article

Gao,Y. (2025). Behavioral Dynamics of Student Alcohol Use: A Markov Chain Analysis of Academic-Period Transitions. Theoretical and Natural Science,132,43-48.

Data availability

The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study will be available from the authors upon reasonable request.

About volume

Volume title: Proceedings of CONF-APMM 2025 Symposium: Simulation and Theory of Differential-Integral Equation in Applied Physics

ISBN: 978-1-80590-305-5(Print) / 978-1-80590-306-2(Online)

Editor: Marwan Omar, Shuxia Zhao

Conference website: https://www.confapmm.org/dalian.html

Conference date: 27 September 2025

Series: Theoretical and Natural Science

Volume number: Vol.132

ISSN: 2753-8818(Print) / 2753-8826(Online)

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