Income Inequality and the Realization of Fertility Desires in China: Evidence from CGSS Panel Data
Research Article
Open Access
CC BY

Income Inequality and the Realization of Fertility Desires in China: Evidence from CGSS Panel Data

Jiayin Xu 1* Yuqing Wu 2
1 Nanjing University
2 Nanjing University
*Corresponding author: xujiayin1127@gmail.com
Published on 14 October 2025
Journal Cover
AEMPS Vol.226
ISSN (Print): 2754-1177
ISSN (Online): 2754-1169
ISBN (Print): 978-1-80590-345-1
ISBN (Online): 978-1-80590-346-8
Download Cover

Abstract

China is currently grappling with a critically low fertility rate and rapidly aging population, both of which pose significant threats to its long-term socioeconomic sustainability. Despite the relaxation of the one-child policy, the fertility outcomes remain far below replacement levels, indicating that policy alone is insufficient. This study shifts focus from fertility intentions to the realization of these intentions, examining the impact of regional income inequality on the fertility gap—defined as the difference between an individual's ideal and actual number of children. Using panel data from the China General Social Survey (CGSS) spanning 2013 to 2023, this research employs a two-way fixed effects model at the province and year levels. Results indicate that higher regional income inequality significantly widens the fertility gap, primarily through intensifying individuals' sense of relative deprivation and lowering their perceived socioeconomic status. Furthermore, the heterogeneity analysis indicates that this negative impact is more pronounced among urban residents, individuals aged 30-40, and those residing in the eastern regions of China. These findings underscore the need to address economic inequality and implement targeted policy interventions to foster a more fertility-supportive environment.

Keywords:

Income Inequality, Fertility Gap, CGSS, Relative Deprivation, Socioeconomic Status

View PDF
Xu,J.;Wu,Y. (2025). Income Inequality and the Realization of Fertility Desires in China: Evidence from CGSS Panel Data. Advances in Economics, Management and Political Sciences,226,7-15.

References

[1]. Population and Employment Statistics Department of the National Bureau of Statistics.(2024). China Population and Employment Statistical Yearbook 2024.China Statistics Press.

[2]. Zhang, L. (2025). [Educational attainment, transformation of marriage and fertility concepts, and fertility intentions: An analysis based on family cultural change and self-attention]. Population and Economics, (03), 1–14. (in Chinese).

[3]. Yang, Y., & Jiang, J. (2023). [Gender discipline, fertility, and the gender income gap]. Industrial Economics Review, 14(02), 147–160. (in Chinese).

[4]. Jia, H., & Nong, J. (2025). [The mechanism of social mobility on fertility intentions: The mediating role of consumption upgrading]. Journal of Management, 38(01), 48–62. (in Chinese).

[5]. Ge, W. (2024). [Comparative advantage, female labor participation, and household fertility behavior: Evidence from China Household Finance Survey]. Journal of Yunnan University of Finance and Economics, 40(06), 63–80. (in Chinese).

[6]. Gao, Y. (2024). [China’s fiscal and tax policies and fertility intentions among childbearing-age population] (Doctoral dissertation). East China Normal University. (in Chinese).

[7]. Li, R., Liu, Y., Wang, W., et al. (2020). [Urban land finance expansion in China and its impact on economic efficiency]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 75(10), 2126–2145. (in Chinese).

[8]. Wang, M., & Wang, S. (2024). [Educational pressure, housing burden, and fertility intentions: The crowding-out effect of happiness and social class]. South China Population, 39(03), 14–26. (in Chinese).

[9]. Peng, H., & Cheng, B. (2021). [Fertility incentives and personal income tax: Theoretical logic and empirical evidence]. Population and Economics, (02), 1–12. (in Chinese).

[10]. Zhu, L., Huang, B., Liu, C., & Peng, G. (2024). [Subjective well-being and fertility intentions: Evidence from CGSS]. Population Research, 48(01), 118–132. (in Chinese).

[11]. Xie, X., Fu, K., & Zou, W. (2023). [Educational aspirations, inequality of opportunity, and fertility intentions]. Southern Economy, (05), 48–63. (in Chinese).

[12]. Wang, X., & Shi, Z. (2022). [From income to assets: Wealth inequality and fertility intentions]. Economic Review, (01), 114–126. (in Chinese).

[13]. Yu, J., Zhou, Y., & Xie, Y. (2021). [Macroeconomic determinants of Chinese residents’ ideal number of children]. Population Research, 45(06), 45–61. (in Chinese).

[14]. Wang, C., & Luo, C. (2022). [Income distribution adjustment, social security improvement, and fertility rebound: EU experience and implications]. Western Forum, 32(02), 78–93. (in Chinese).

[15]. Cai, F. (2024). [Fertility intentions, mobility, and the welfare state]. Economic Perspectives, (03), 3–12. (in Chinese).

[16]. Müller, M. W., Hamory, J., Johnson-Hanks, J., & Miguel, E. (2022). The illusion of stable fertility preferences. Population Studies, 76(2), 169–189.

Cite this article

Xu,J.;Wu,Y. (2025). Income Inequality and the Realization of Fertility Desires in China: Evidence from CGSS Panel Data. Advances in Economics, Management and Political Sciences,226,7-15.

Data availability

The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study will be available from the authors upon reasonable request.

About volume

Volume title: Proceedings of ICEMGD 2025 Symposium: Innovating in Management and Economic Development

ISBN: 978-1-80590-345-1(Print) / 978-1-80590-346-8(Online)
Editor: Florian Marcel Nuţă Nuţă, Ahsan Ali Ashraf
Conference date: 23 September 2025
Series: Advances in Economics, Management and Political Sciences
Volume number: Vol.226
ISSN: 2754-1169(Print) / 2754-1177(Online)