Do Green Electricity Certificates (GECs) Increase the Share of Renewable Energy? Evidence from China
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Do Green Electricity Certificates (GECs) Increase the Share of Renewable Energy? Evidence from China

Anhang Liu 1*
1 University of Nottingham
*Corresponding author: 20204308@stu.hebmu.edu.cn
Published on 9 September 2025
Journal Cover
AEMPS Vol.215
ISSN (Print): 2754-1177
ISSN (Online): 2754-1169
ISBN (Print): 978-1-80590-357-4
ISBN (Online): 978-1-80590-358-1
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Abstract

With the fast development of global renewables, green energy policy is currently a popular research topic. This paper emphasizes empirical methods to evaluate the Green Electricity Certificate (GECs) trading policy in China and explore the policy efficiency and future implementation by innovatively using the different-in-difference model. The findings are surprising, as the role of trading policy in accelerating the share of renewables in those provinces is not apparent, and the negative spillover effect promotes the development of wind and solar power in non-trading provinces. The Chinese government should carefully consider the real market demand of GECs and encourage renewable energy transition by more feasible and efficient policy instruments.

Keywords:

Green Electricity Certificate Trading Mechanism, Renewable energy policy, DID model, Energy Transition, China

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Liu,A. (2025). Do Green Electricity Certificates (GECs) Increase the Share of Renewable Energy? Evidence from China. Advances in Economics, Management and Political Sciences,215,30-42.

References

[1]. Hove, A., & Xie, G. S. (2023). Green certificates with Chinese characteristics: Will green certificates help China's clean energy transition? (No. 9). OIES Paper: CE.

[2]. NEA. (2023, February 14). The National Energy Administration (NEA) has released information on the development of renewable energy in 2022 and has presented information on the progress of work to improve the Green Power Certificate system for renewable energy. The State Council, The People’s Republic of China. https: //www.gov.cn/xinwen/2023-02/14/content_5741481.htm

[3]. Yin, Z. (2023). Comparison of Chinese Green Electricity Certificate and International Green Electricity Certificate. Sch J Econ Bus Manag, 11, 297-302.

[4]. Zhou, D., Dong, Z., Sang, X., Wang, Q., & Yu, X. (2023). Do feed-in tariff reduction and green certificate trading effectively promote regional sustainable development?. Energy, 283, 129042.

[5]. Feng, T. T., Li, R., Zhang, H. M., Gong, X. L., & Yang, Y. S. (2021). Induction mechanism and optimization of tradable green certificates and carbon emission trading acting on electricity market in China. Resources, conservation and recycling, 169, 105487.

[6]. Jia, H., Liu, D., Zhuo, G., Feng, Y., & Han, Y. (2023, April). Review for Global Practices of Renewable Energy Certificates. In 2023 8th Asia Conference on Power and Electrical Engineering (ACPEE) (pp. 642-646). IEEE.

[7]. Senturk, A., & Ozcan, M. (2023). Turkey's national renewable energy certificate system: a comparative assessment. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 1-29.

[8]. Akkaya, M. A., & Onuk, M. Is Renewable Energy Certification System Necessary for Turkey. Romania, 7, 8.

[9]. Guo, H., Chen, Q., Xia, Q., & Kang, C. (2019). Modeling strategic behaviors of renewable energy with joint consideration on energy and tradable green certificate markets. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 35(3), 1898-1910.

[10]. Xu, Q., Qiao, S., Zhou, H., Luo, R., Ma, X., & Gong, J. (2022). Mechanism design and consumption certification of differentiated green electricity trading: A Zhejiang experience. Frontiers in Energy Research, 10, 967290.

[11]. Liu, W., Zhang, X., & Feng, S. (2019). Does renewable energy policy work? Evidence from a panel data analysis. Renewable energy, 135, 635-642.

[12]. Schaffer, L. M., & Bernauer, T. (2014). Explaining government choices for promoting renewable energy. Energy policy, 68, 15-27.

[13]. Pan, D. W., & Nguyen, L. T. (2020). Electricity Certificate Scheme as an Incentive for Renewable Energy Development in Norway (Master's thesis, Handelshøyskolen BI).

[14]. Joshi, J. (2021). Do renewable portfolio standards increase renewable energy capacity? Evidence from the United States. Journal of Environmental Management, 287, 112261.

[15]. Maguire, K., & Munasib, A. (2016). The disparate influence of state renewable portfolio standards on renewable electricity generation capacity. Land Economics, 92(3), 468-490.

[16]. Ciarreta, A., Espinosa, M. P., & Pizarro-Irizar, C. (2017). Optimal regulation of renewable energy: A comparison of Feed-in Tariffs and Tradable Green Certificates in the Spanish electricity system. Energy Economics, 67, 387-399.

[17]. Liu, Y., Q, Sun, W, & Zhu, Z. S. (2022). Assessing the Impacts of Carbon Markets on the Low-Carbon Transition of Energy Structures: Pathways to Achievement. China Environmental Science, 42(9), 4369-4379.

References

[1]. Hove, A., & Xie, G. S. (2023). Green certificates with Chinese characteristics: Will green certificates help China's clean energy transition? (No. 9). OIES Paper: CE.

[2]. NEA. (2023, February 14). The National Energy Administration (NEA) has released information on the development of renewable energy in 2022 and has presented information on the progress of work to improve the Green Power Certificate system for renewable energy. The State Council, The People’s Republic of China. https: //www.gov.cn/xinwen/2023-02/14/content_5741481.htm

[3]. Yin, Z. (2023). Comparison of Chinese Green Electricity Certificate and International Green Electricity Certificate. Sch J Econ Bus Manag, 11, 297-302.

[4]. Zhou, D., Dong, Z., Sang, X., Wang, Q., & Yu, X. (2023). Do feed-in tariff reduction and green certificate trading effectively promote regional sustainable development?. Energy, 283, 129042.

[5]. Feng, T. T., Li, R., Zhang, H. M., Gong, X. L., & Yang, Y. S. (2021). Induction mechanism and optimization of tradable green certificates and carbon emission trading acting on electricity market in China. Resources, conservation and recycling, 169, 105487.

[6]. Jia, H., Liu, D., Zhuo, G., Feng, Y., & Han, Y. (2023, April). Review for Global Practices of Renewable Energy Certificates. In 2023 8th Asia Conference on Power and Electrical Engineering (ACPEE) (pp. 642-646). IEEE.

[7]. Senturk, A., & Ozcan, M. (2023). Turkey's national renewable energy certificate system: a comparative assessment. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 1-29.

[8]. Akkaya, M. A., & Onuk, M. Is Renewable Energy Certification System Necessary for Turkey. Romania, 7, 8.

[9]. Guo, H., Chen, Q., Xia, Q., & Kang, C. (2019). Modeling strategic behaviors of renewable energy with joint consideration on energy and tradable green certificate markets. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 35(3), 1898-1910.

[10]. Xu, Q., Qiao, S., Zhou, H., Luo, R., Ma, X., & Gong, J. (2022). Mechanism design and consumption certification of differentiated green electricity trading: A Zhejiang experience. Frontiers in Energy Research, 10, 967290.

[11]. Liu, W., Zhang, X., & Feng, S. (2019). Does renewable energy policy work? Evidence from a panel data analysis. Renewable energy, 135, 635-642.

[12]. Schaffer, L. M., & Bernauer, T. (2014). Explaining government choices for promoting renewable energy. Energy policy, 68, 15-27.

[13]. Pan, D. W., & Nguyen, L. T. (2020). Electricity Certificate Scheme as an Incentive for Renewable Energy Development in Norway (Master's thesis, Handelshøyskolen BI).

[14]. Joshi, J. (2021). Do renewable portfolio standards increase renewable energy capacity? Evidence from the United States. Journal of Environmental Management, 287, 112261.

[15]. Maguire, K., & Munasib, A. (2016). The disparate influence of state renewable portfolio standards on renewable electricity generation capacity. Land Economics, 92(3), 468-490.

[16]. Ciarreta, A., Espinosa, M. P., & Pizarro-Irizar, C. (2017). Optimal regulation of renewable energy: A comparison of Feed-in Tariffs and Tradable Green Certificates in the Spanish electricity system. Energy Economics, 67, 387-399.

[17]. Liu, Y., Q, Sun, W, & Zhu, Z. S. (2022). Assessing the Impacts of Carbon Markets on the Low-Carbon Transition of Energy Structures: Pathways to Achievement. China Environmental Science, 42(9), 4369-4379.

Cite this article

Liu,A. (2025). Do Green Electricity Certificates (GECs) Increase the Share of Renewable Energy? Evidence from China. Advances in Economics, Management and Political Sciences,215,30-42.

Data availability

The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study will be available from the authors upon reasonable request.

About volume

Volume title: Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Financial Technology and Business Analysis

ISBN: 978-1-80590-357-4(Print) / 978-1-80590-358-1(Online)
Editor: Lukáš Vartiak
Conference website: https://2025.icftba.org/
Conference date: 12 December 2025
Series: Advances in Economics, Management and Political Sciences
Volume number: Vol.215
ISSN: 2754-1169(Print) / 2754-1177(Online)

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