Export Intensity and Tertiary Education: A Cross-National Analysis with Economic Complexity Index as a Moderator
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Export Intensity and Tertiary Education: A Cross-National Analysis with Economic Complexity Index as a Moderator

Qianrong Hu 1*
1 Durham University
*Corresponding author: ramla.hu.qianrong@gmail.com
Published on 20 August 2025
Journal Cover
AEMPS Vol.211
ISSN (Print): 2754-1177
ISSN (Online): 2754-1169
ISBN (Print): 978-1-80590-321-5
ISBN (Online): 978-1-80590-322-2
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Abstract

This study examines the bidirectional relationship between export intensity and tertiary education enrollment across 109 countries from 1998 to 2023, with a focus on the moderating role of economic complexity. Using fixed-effects panel models, interaction terms, and system GMM estimation, the analysis reveals an asymmetric pattern: while both directions are statistically significant, the influence of education on exports is more robust and contingent on structural sophistication. The Economic Complexity Index (ECI) significantly strengthens the education-to-export link but has limited moderating effect in the reverse direction. The study highlights the importance of aligning human capital development with structural transformation to support inclusive, export-led growth. Context-specific strategies are recommended for countries at different levels of economic complexity. The robustness of findings is confirmed through alternative specifications and transformations. Overall, the study offers new insights into how trade and education co-evolve and underscores the role of productive capabilities in shaping development pathways amid shifting global dynamics.

Keywords:

Export Intensity, Tertiary Education, Economic Complexity, Fixed Effects, System GMM

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Hu,Q. (2025). Export Intensity and Tertiary Education: A Cross-National Analysis with Economic Complexity Index as a Moderator. Advances in Economics, Management and Political Sciences,211,73-79.

References

[1]. Galor, O., & Mountford, A. (2008). Trading population for productivity: Theory and evidence. Review of Economic Studies, 75(4), 1143–1179.

[2]. Nguyen, H. T. T., Pham, M. H. N., Nguyen, T. T., & Duong, K. D. (2024). The impact of government expenditure and tertiary education on high-technology exports: Evidence from Asia-Pacific and European nations. Applied Economics Journal, 31(2), 77–97.

[3]. Blanchard, E. J., & Olney, W. W. (2017). Globalization and human capital investment: Export composition drives educational attainment. Journal of International Economics, 106, 165–183.

[4]. Suzuki, M. (2023). Aiding higher education with export expansion in the developing world. World Trade Review, 22(5), 608–628.

[5]. Álvarez, R., & Vergara, D. (2016). Natural resources and education: Evidence from Chile (Working Paper No. 433). University of Chile, Department of Economics.

[6]. Peña-Vinces, J., & Audretsch, D. B. (2021). Tertiary education and science as drivers of high-technology exporting firms’ growth in developing countries. The Journal of Technology Transfer, 46(6), 1734–1757.

[7]. Mehrbani, V. (2018). Educational levels and export performance of Iranian industries. Theoretical Economics Letters, 8, 1460–1474.

[8]. Du, Y., Yan, J., Cao, F., Li, Y., & Zhou, M. (2023). Higher education expansion and domestic value added in exports: Theory and evidence from China. Journal of Asian Economics, 87, 101621.

[9]. Rodrik, D. (1998). Why do more open economies have bigger governments? Journal of Political Economy, 106(5), 997–1032.

[10]. Michaels, G. (2008). The effect of trade on the demand for skill: Evidence from the Interstate Highway System. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 90(4), 683–701.

[11]. Mahmood, T., Din, M. U., & Ghani, E. (2009). An analysis of technology adoption by export-oriented manufacturers in Pakistan. The Pakistan Development Review, 48(4), 939–948.

[12]. Zapata, A. N., Arrazola, M., & de Hevia, J. (2024). Determinants of high-tech exports: New evidence from OECD countries. Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 15(1), 1103-1117.

[13]. Hardy, B. L., & Marcotte, D. E. (2015). Education and the dynamics of middle-class status. Brookings Institution.

[14]. Tzivanakis, N. (2019). The educational path to institutional quality: A panel analysis of developing economies. SSRN. https: //doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4973048

References

[1]. Galor, O., & Mountford, A. (2008). Trading population for productivity: Theory and evidence. Review of Economic Studies, 75(4), 1143–1179.

[2]. Nguyen, H. T. T., Pham, M. H. N., Nguyen, T. T., & Duong, K. D. (2024). The impact of government expenditure and tertiary education on high-technology exports: Evidence from Asia-Pacific and European nations. Applied Economics Journal, 31(2), 77–97.

[3]. Blanchard, E. J., & Olney, W. W. (2017). Globalization and human capital investment: Export composition drives educational attainment. Journal of International Economics, 106, 165–183.

[4]. Suzuki, M. (2023). Aiding higher education with export expansion in the developing world. World Trade Review, 22(5), 608–628.

[5]. Álvarez, R., & Vergara, D. (2016). Natural resources and education: Evidence from Chile (Working Paper No. 433). University of Chile, Department of Economics.

[6]. Peña-Vinces, J., & Audretsch, D. B. (2021). Tertiary education and science as drivers of high-technology exporting firms’ growth in developing countries. The Journal of Technology Transfer, 46(6), 1734–1757.

[7]. Mehrbani, V. (2018). Educational levels and export performance of Iranian industries. Theoretical Economics Letters, 8, 1460–1474.

[8]. Du, Y., Yan, J., Cao, F., Li, Y., & Zhou, M. (2023). Higher education expansion and domestic value added in exports: Theory and evidence from China. Journal of Asian Economics, 87, 101621.

[9]. Rodrik, D. (1998). Why do more open economies have bigger governments? Journal of Political Economy, 106(5), 997–1032.

[10]. Michaels, G. (2008). The effect of trade on the demand for skill: Evidence from the Interstate Highway System. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 90(4), 683–701.

[11]. Mahmood, T., Din, M. U., & Ghani, E. (2009). An analysis of technology adoption by export-oriented manufacturers in Pakistan. The Pakistan Development Review, 48(4), 939–948.

[12]. Zapata, A. N., Arrazola, M., & de Hevia, J. (2024). Determinants of high-tech exports: New evidence from OECD countries. Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 15(1), 1103-1117.

[13]. Hardy, B. L., & Marcotte, D. E. (2015). Education and the dynamics of middle-class status. Brookings Institution.

[14]. Tzivanakis, N. (2019). The educational path to institutional quality: A panel analysis of developing economies. SSRN. https: //doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4973048

Cite this article

Hu,Q. (2025). Export Intensity and Tertiary Education: A Cross-National Analysis with Economic Complexity Index as a Moderator. Advances in Economics, Management and Political Sciences,211,73-79.

Data availability

The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study will be available from the authors upon reasonable request.

About volume

Volume title: Proceedings of ICEMGD 2025 Symposium: Resilient Business Strategies in Global Markets

ISBN: 978-1-80590-321-5(Print) / 978-1-80590-322-2(Online)
Editor: Florian Marcel Nuţă Nuţă, Li Chai
Conference website: https://2025.icemgd.org/CAU.html
Conference date: 20 September 2025
Series: Advances in Economics, Management and Political Sciences
Volume number: Vol.211
ISSN: 2754-1169(Print) / 2754-1177(Online)

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